Associate Professor Grant Duncan with World TV reporter Lawrence Law.
New Zealand farmers may be miffed that Donald Trump’s presidency spells the end of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and the opportunities it promised.
But for those opposed to it, the likely death of the TPP may be the one good thing that comes of the highly contentious US election result, says a Massey University politics lecturer.
Associate Professor Grant Duncan, from the Auckland campus, told Chinese television network World TV on the eve of Trump’s inauguration ceremony that The Don’s presidency would bring about a lot of change on the international political scene, including in the area of climate change policy.
He says it is ironic that while the US is set to pursue a protectionist, anti-globalisation, America-first approach to trade, China’s head of state is speaking in favour of globalisation.
Dr Duncan says New Zealand is well positioned to relate well to China and the US. “Ironically it’s been much easier for us to get a free trade agreement with China than it has been with the US. We’ve been trying for much longer to get a free trade agreement with the US and it’s been impossible.
“China continues to be a our primary trading partner and will continue to be really important. There’s a lot of doubt now about our access into the American market,” he says.
The threat of a trade war between China and the US would be a disaster for all parties, including New Zealand. But China’s position in the Asia-Pacific region would be advantaged by Trump’s nationalism, he adds.
With Trump’s anti-immigration message a dominant theme of his electoral campaign, Dr Duncan urged New Zealand’s political leaders to reassure the country’s migrant communities that there should be no flow-on effect here and stressed that the majority of New Zealanders did not share these views.
Trump’s comments about undocumented immigrants and Muslim immigrants in particular are alarming, and out of step with international law, he says.
Dr Duncan advised a “wait and see” approach as the world braces itself for the reality television star’s first days as President because “some of his statements maybe just testing the waters, prodding people to see what reaction they get.”
Trump, he says is a “contradictory and often self-contradictory individual” and he thinks people need to “keep an open mind and wait and see what he actually does.”