I'm Professor in Geostatistics, in the Statistics
Group and in Volcanic Risk Solutions
in Palmerston North
I moonlight as an Associate Editor for the Australian &
New Zealand Journal of Statistics
and Statistics in Volcanology
, and am the past chair of the IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology ..
I graduated with an MSc from Victoria University of Wellington
and a PhD from The University of Cambridge
My research interests
- stochastic modelling, especially in geophysics
- inference and computational methods for stochastic processes
- reliability and statistical quality control
I have a general interest in methods of stochastic operations research, including simulation and statistical analysis, and have applied these in consulting problems.
You can view a list of my
publications here .
From time to time I give seminars
on my work. Below you can
download the slides from some of my recent presentations (in
PDF - portable document format).
Current PhD students
- "Analyzing treatment effects on distributions with complex structure." Annual Conference of the New Zealand Statistical Association, Palmerston North, June-July 2010.
- "Clock advance in earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions." IUGG General Assembly, Melbourne, June-July 2011
- "Assessing probabiistic forecasts of volcanic eruption forecasts." IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, Kagoshima, July 2013
- "Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field." IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, Kagoshima, July 2013
- "Constructing a temporal eruption record for the Auckland Volcanic Field via Bayesian age reconciliation." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
- "Dynamic uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis of evacuation prior to a volcanic eruption." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
- "Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation, with an application to the Auckland Volcanic Field." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
Past PhD students
- Magret Damaschke, High precision tephrochronology: Tracking the time-varying pulse of a volcano. Chief supervisor Prof. Shane Cronin
Alex Dunant (University of Canterbury), Use of graph theory for cascading and multi-hazards impact assessment, Chief supervisor Prof. Tim Davies (University of Canterbury)
Gabriele Frigerio Porta, Statistical models for dynamic multi-hazard and risk. Co-supervisor A/Prof. Geoff Jones
- Michelle Gosse, A detailed examination of agent based simulation in regulation. Co-supervisor Prof. Stephen Marsland
- Pip McVeagh, Site specific pasture production in New Zealand hill country. Chief supervisor Prof. Ian Yule
Amina Shahzadi (University of Otago), Hidden Markov models with non-homogeneous transition probabilities, Chief supervisor Dr Ting Wang (University of Otago)
Sunchai Tongsuksai, Applications of stochastically weighted averages in quality control, Chief supervisor Dr K. Govindaraju
- Ian Beale, Subset Selection Routing: Modelling and Heuristics
- Marco Brenna, Jeju Island Volcanism. Chief supervisor Prof. Shane Cronin
- Rob Dykes, The effect of iceberg calving on glacier dynamics: Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. Chief supervisor Dr Gert Lube
- Rebecca Green, Statistical methods for assembling and incorporating volcanic records in hazard estimation.
- Emily Kawabata, Spatio-temporal volcanic hazard estimation. Co-supervisors Prof. Shane Cronin, Dr Ting Wang (University of Otago) and Dr Gill Jolly (GNS)
- Gabor Kereszturi, Scoria cone morphology. Chief supervisor Dr Karoly Nemeth
- Armando Rodado, Bayesian Approaches to Time-varying Volcanic Hazard Estimation
- Melody Runge (University of Auckland), Improving probabilistic hazard forecasts in volcanic fields: Application to Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Chief supervisor Dr Jan Lindsay
- Tim Stahl (University of Canterbury), Tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology of the Fox Peak Fault. Chief supervisor Dr Mark Quigley
- Ting Wang, Statistical Models for Earthquakes Incorporating Ancillary Data
- David Woods, Modular Local Search: A Framework for Self-Adaptive Meta Heuristics. Co-supervisor Dr John Giffin (University of Canterbury).
- Marsden Fund: $330,000 for 1997-9, "Nonlinear Modelling of Fracture Mechanisms" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Victoria University of Wellington).
- ARC (Australian Research Council): AUS$150,000 for 1997-9, "Analytical and computational methods for assessing the performance of telecommunications networks" (AI, principal researcher P.K. Pollett, University of Queensland).
- Marsden Fund: $321,000 for 2001-3, "Statistical Models for the Approach to Criticality in Earthquake Occurrence" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Statistics Research Associates, R. Robinson, IGNS).
- Massey University Research Fund: $94,376 for 2002-03, "Quality for Correlated Deviations" (co-PI, with C. Lai and K. Govindaraju).
- FRST PGST grant, $4,248,000 for 2004-9, "Learning to live with volcanic risk" (one of eleven-member team).
- Marsden Fund: $529,400 for 2005-7, "Hidden Markov Models for Earthquake Processes with Ancillary Measurements" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Statistics Research Associates, R. Robinson, IGNS).
- Committee member (one of 6) for NZIMA 2005 programme “Hidden Markov Models and Complex Systems”, total budget $393,000.
- EQC grant, $36,000 for 2007-10, “Volcanic Hazard Forecasting Models” (PI)
- EQC Time Varying Hazard grant, $50,000 for 2008, “Building a geochemically-constrained time-varying eruption hazard forecasting model for Mt Taranaki” (co-PI, with S. Cronin and M. Turner, INR-Massey).
- FRST/IIOF grant, $966,210 for 2009-12, “Facing the Challenge of Auckland’s Volcanism” (one of eight member team).
EQC/DEVORA grant, $60,000 for 2009-12, “Bayesian approaches to volcanic hazard forcasting” (PI, with S. Cronin and A. Noble).
FRST Natural Hazards Platform grant, $188,160 for 2010-11, “Robust estimates of geophysical hazard” (PI).
- FRST Natural Hazards Platform grant, $180,275 for 2010-11, “Probabilistic mass-flow hazard modelling” (AI, principal investigator G. Lube, INR-Massey).
- The Actuarial Foundation (USA), US$17494 for 2010, “A Mathematical Model for Late-Life Mortality” (PI)
EQC, $30,000 for 2010-11, “Stochastic Modelling of Geophysical Hazard” (PI)
FRST Natural Hazards Platform 2010- (Key researcher, $50,000-$60,000 p.a.)
VORiSA (“Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia”) 2012- (Key researcher, $27,000 p.a.)
MSI Natural Hazards Research Platform, $250,000 for 2012-15, Simulating socio-economic impacts of the rebuild phase following a volcanic event using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium” (AI).
EQC Biennial Grant, $56,187for 2014-15, “Automated objective identification of seismic phases” (AI, principal investigator T. Wang, U. Otago).
Natural Hazards Research Platform contestable grant, $289,639 for 2015-17, “First steps to a national volcano hazard model: Estimation of time varying hazard from New Zealand volcanoes through expert elicitation and Bayesian analogues”, (PI).
National Science Challenge, $1,062,500 for 2015-19, “Resilience to Nature’s Challenges” Hazards Toolbox (Program leader and key researcher).
Natural Hazards Research Platform Grant, $2,355,000 for 2015-19, “Quantifying exposure to specific and multiple volcanic hazards”, (Science leader and key researcher).
Massey University Research Fund, $10,000 for 2016, “What happens next? Modeling the eruption pattern of monogenetic volcanoes”, (co-PI)
Semester 1, 2017
Semester 2, 2017
- tel: +64 6 951 7641
- fax: +64 6 350 5632
- postal address: Institute of Fundamental Sciences - Statistics, Massey
University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New