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Eri Kawabata

Doctor of Philosophy, (Statistics)
Study Completed: 2016
College of Sciences


Thesis Title
Statistical Methods for Estimating Tephra Source and Dispersal

Read article at Massey Research Online: MRO icon

Widespread ash is one of the major hazards from explosive volcanic eruptions. Complex eruptions commonly produce several phases of ash fall from multiple vents. Ms Kawabata developed a statistical method for identifying the eruptive sources, their phases and directions, from ash thickness measurements alone. This enabled old eruptions to be quantified as an input to more precise volcanic hazard forecasting models. Estimating spatio-temporal hazard from a volcanic field, such as Auckland which has produced about 50 volcanoes in the last 250,000 years, is critically dependent on a reconstruction of past events. Many estimated ages for the Auckland volcanoes exist from various dating methods, but these are often inconsistent. Ms Kawabata developed a statistical approach to estimating the volcano ages, providing an improvement in the age-order model for the volcanoes in the Auckland Volcanic Field, which will improve volcanic hazard estimation for New Zealand''slargest city.  

Professor Mark Bebbington
Dr Gill Jolly
Professor Shane Cronin
Dr Ting Wang