I'm the Professor in Geostatistics, in the Statistics
Group and in Volcanic Risk Solutions
in Palmerston North
I moonlight as an Associate Editor for the Australian &
New Zealand Journal of Statistics
, Frontiers in earth Sciences
, and Statistics in Volcanology
, and am a past chair of the IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology ..
I graduated with an MSc from Victoria University of Wellington
and a PhD from The University of Cambridge
My research interests
- stochastic modelling, especially in geophysics
- inference and computational methods for stochastic processes
- reliability and statistical quality control
I have a general interest in methods of stochastic operations research, including simulation and statistical analysis, and have applied these in consulting problems.
You can view a list of my
publications here .
From time to time I give seminars
on my work. Below you can
download the slides from some of my recent presentations (in
PDF - portable document format).
Current PhD students
- "Analyzing treatment effects on distributions with complex structure." Annual Conference of the New Zealand Statistical Association, Palmerston North, June-July 2010.
- "Clock advance in earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions." IUGG General Assembly, Melbourne, June-July 2011
- "Assessing probabiistic forecasts of volcanic eruption forecasts." IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, Kagoshima, July 2013
- "Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field." IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, Kagoshima, July 2013
- "Constructing a temporal eruption record for the Auckland Volcanic Field via Bayesian age reconciliation." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
- "Dynamic uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis of evacuation prior to a volcanic eruption." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
- "Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation, with an application to the Auckland Volcanic Field." IUGG General Assembly, Prague, June-July 2015
- "Markov modulated Hawkes process with marks." Applied Probability at The Rock, Ayers Rock, April 18, 2017
- "So you have an eruption – how do you forecast what happens next?" IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, August 14, 2017
- "National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation." IAVCEI Scientific Assembly, August 17, 2017
- "From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example from the AVF." 1st International Colloquium of Mexican and New Zealand Studies, March 2021.
Past PhD students
Vanesa Burgos Delgado (Nanyang Technological University), Application of volcanic analogues for short- and long-term hazard assessment at long-dormant volcanoes. Chief supervisor Dr Susanna Jenkins
Brenda Contla Hernadez, Statistically plausible eruption scenarios determined from geochemical data. Co-supervisor Dr Melody Whitehead
- Michelle Gosse, A detailed examination of agent based simulation in regulation.
Co-supervisor Associate Professor Jonathan Marshall
Duncan Grimson, Assessing dynamic value chains under cascading natural hazards. Co-supervisor Dr Garry McDonald
Thevaraja Mayooran, Acceptance sampling for industrial autosamplers. Chief supervisor Dr K. Govindaraju
Nic Mostert, A statistical model for forecasting tephra grain size deposition, and its use in hazard forecasting.
Co-supervisor Dr Stuart Mead
Emmy Scott, Appropriate complexity of volcanic hazard models. Chief supervisor Dr Melody Whitehead
Maryam Tagharobi, Multi-impact operability modelling. Co-supervisor Dr David Harte
Alec Wild (University of Auckland) Quantitative cost-benefit-analysis (CBA) approaches for volcanic crisis management. Chief supervisor Prof Jan Lindsay
- Ian Beale, Subset Selection Routing: Modelling and Heuristics
- Marco Brenna, Jeju Island Volcanism. Chief supervisor Prof. Shane Cronin
- Magret Damaschke, High precision tephrochronology: Tracking the time-varying pulse of a volcano. Chief supervisor Prof. Shane Cronin
Alex Dunant (University of Canterbury), Use of graph theory for cascading and multi-hazards impact assessment, Chief supervisor Prof. Tim Davies
- Rob Dykes, The effect of iceberg calving on glacier dynamics: Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. Chief supervisor Dr Gert Lube
- Rebecca Green, Statistical methods for assembling and incorporating volcanic records in hazard estimation.
- Emily Kawabata, Spatio-temporal volcanic hazard estimation.
- Gabor Kereszturi, Scoria cone morphology. Chief supervisor Dr Karoly Nemeth
- Pip McVeagh, Site specific pasture production in New Zealand hill country. Chief supervisor Prof. Ian Yule
Gabriele Frigerio Porta, Statistical models for dynamic multi-hazard and risk.
- Armando Rodado, Bayesian Approaches to Time-varying Volcanic Hazard Estimation
- Melody Runge (University of Auckland), Improving probabilistic hazard forecasts in volcanic fields: Application to Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Chief supervisor Dr Jan Lindsay
- Amina Shahzadi (University of Otago), Hidden Markov models with non-homogeneous transition probabilities, Chief supervisor Dr Ting Wang
- Tim Stahl (University of Canterbury), Tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology of the Fox Peak Fault. Chief supervisor Dr Mark Quigley
Sunchai Tongsuksai, Applications of stochastically weighted averages in quality control, Chief supervisor Dr K. Govindaraju
- Ting Wang, Statistical Models for Earthquakes Incorporating Ancillary Data
Alanna Weir (Univesity of Canterbury), Multi-volcanic hazard impacts. Chief supervisor
Prof Tom Wilson
Pabasara Wickramasingha, Applications of averaging functions in quality control. Chief supervisor Dr K. Govindaraju
- David Woods, Modular Local Search: A Framework for Self-Adaptive Meta Heuristics. Co-supervisor Dr John Giffin (University of Canterbury).
- Marsden Fund: $330,000 for 1997-9, "Nonlinear Modelling of Fracture Mechanisms" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Victoria University of Wellington).
- ARC (Australian Research Council): AUS$150,000 for 1997-9, "Analytical and computational methods for assessing the performance of telecommunications networks" (AI, principal researcher P.K. Pollett, University of Queensland).
- Marsden Fund: $321,000 for 2001-3, "Statistical Models for the Approach to Criticality in Earthquake Occurrence" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Statistics Research Associates, R. Robinson, IGNS).
- Massey University Research Fund: $94,376 for 2002-03, "Quality for Correlated Deviations" (co-PI, with C. Lai and K. Govindaraju).
- FRST PGST grant, $4,248,000 for 2004-9, "Learning to live with volcanic risk" (one of eleven-member team).
- Marsden Fund: $529,400 for 2005-7, "Hidden Markov Models for Earthquake Processes with Ancillary Measurements" (AI, with D. Vere-Jones and D. Harte, Statistics Research Associates, R. Robinson, IGNS).
- Committee member (one of 6) for NZIMA 2005 programme “Hidden Markov Models and Complex Systems”, total budget $393,000.
- EQC grant, $36,000 for 2007-10, “Volcanic Hazard Forecasting Models” (PI)
- EQC Time Varying Hazard grant, $50,000 for 2008, “Building a geochemically-constrained time-varying eruption hazard forecasting model for Mt Taranaki” (co-PI, with S. Cronin and M. Turner, INR-Massey).
- FRST/IIOF grant, $966,210 for 2009-12, “Facing the Challenge of Auckland’s Volcanism” (one of eight member team).
EQC/DEVORA grant, $60,000 for 2009-12, “Bayesian approaches to volcanic hazard forcasting” (PI, with S. Cronin and A. Noble).
FRST Natural Hazards Platform grant, $188,160 for 2010-11, “Robust estimates of geophysical hazard” (PI).
- FRST Natural Hazards Platform grant, $180,275 for 2010-11, “Probabilistic mass-flow hazard modelling” (AI, principal investigator G. Lube, INR-Massey).
- The Actuarial Foundation (USA), US$17494 for 2010, “A Mathematical Model for Late-Life Mortality” (PI)
EQC, $30,000 for 2010-11, “Stochastic Modelling of Geophysical Hazard” (PI)
FRST Natural Hazards Platform 2010- (Key researcher, $50,000-$60,000 p.a.)
VORiSA (“Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia”) 2012- (Key researcher, $27,000 p.a.)
MSI Natural Hazards Research Platform, $250,000 for 2012-15, Simulating socio-economic impacts of the rebuild phase following a volcanic event using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium” (AI).
EQC Biennial Grant, $56,187for 2014-15, “Automated objective identification of seismic phases” (AI, principal investigator T. Wang, U. Otago).
Natural Hazards Research Platform contestable grant, $289,639 for 2015-17, “First steps to a national volcano hazard model: Estimation of time varying hazard from New Zealand volcanoes through expert elicitation and Bayesian analogues” (PI).
National Science Challenge, $1,062,500 for 2015-19, “Resilience to Nature’s Challenges” Hazards Toolbox (Program leader and key researcher).
Natural Hazards Research Platform Grant, $2,355,000 for 2015-19, “Quantifying exposure to specific and multiple volcanic hazards” (Science leader and key researcher).
Massey University Research Fund, $10,000 for 2016, “What happens next? Modeling the eruption pattern of monogenetic volcanoes” (co-PI)
EQC Biennial Grant, $62,850 for 2017-19, “A new model of volcanic surge for New Zealand” (AI /Mentor)
MBIE Endeavour Fund, $8,246,225 for 2017-22, "Understanding and being resilient to supervolcanoes" (AI )
National Science Challenge, $4,034,987 for 2019-24, “Resilience to Nature’s Challenges” Volcano programme (Key researcher).
National Science Challenge, $4,499,776 for 2019-24, “Resilience to Nature’s Challenges” Multihazard Risk methodology programme (Programme leader and key researcher).
MBIE Endeavour Fund 2019, $13,676,785 for 2019-2024, “Transitioning Taranaki to a Volcanic Future” (Research Aim leader and key researcher).
Semester 1, 2022
Semester 2, 2022
- tel: +64 6 951 7641
- fax: +64 6 350 5632
- postal address: School of Fundamental Sciences - Statistics, Massey
University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New