Professor Imran Muhammad and Dr Arshad Javed
Aotearoa New Zealand is about to open one of the most significant public transport projects in its history. The real question is not whether the City Rail Link (CRL) will operate successfully later this month, but what kind of Auckland and its transport system do we want to build?
The CRL is a 3.5-kilometre underground railway through central Auckland. It was originally estimated at $3.5 billion in 2013 and is now expected to cost around $5.5 billion, making it one of New Zealand’s most expensive public transport investments.
CRL has become controversial even before opening. Auckland's mayor Wayne Brown recently pointed to the project as an example of infrastructure that was delivered “way too late and way over budget”. His frustration is understandable. Auckland Council is contributing 50 per cent to the project, and no city can afford to allow major infrastructure projects to lose control of cost and time.
International research by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg from Oxford University has found that cost overruns in transport projects are common due to uncertainty and complexity in planning. Mega public transport projects are delivered over decades and rely on assumptions about costs, demand, technology, economic conditions, government policy and geopolitical stability. Many of these factors can change dramatically during delivery.
Since announcement in 2013, CRL has had to navigate inflation, supply-chain disruptions, a global pandemic, geopolitical uncertainty and changing economic conditions. These are not excuses for poor planning and project management but reminders that megaprojects inherently operate in environments of significant uncertainty.
The important lesson is therefore not simply that costs increased, but whether New Zealand has strengthened its capacity to anticipate and manage such risks in planning. So far, the answer is unclear.
From transport projects to sustainable urban development
A city cannot plan its transport system in isolation . Roads, rail , buses, walking and cycling networks, housing, employment centres and development opportunities are interconnected. They need to be planned together through integrated spatial planning once reforms to New Zealand's planning system have been implemented.
The most important question is not whether CRL was over budget. It is whether CRL will fundamentally change how the city plans for urban growth and delivers transport infrastructure and integrated spatial planning.
Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is a growing approach to sustainable urban development. According to the Transit Oriented Development Institute, TOD is a compact, mixed-use and pedestrian-friendly form of development centred around public transport stations, integrating housing, employment, retail and amenities to encourage public transport and active transport.
CRL can become a catalyst to sustainable urban growth through TOD, especially when Chris Bishop is keen on this form of development. . However, TOD does not happen automatically when a railway station is built. It requires appropriate zoning, infrastructure capacity, coordinated planning, fast consenting, development partnerships, housing delivery and sufficient certainty for investors. Auckland Council, Auckland Transport, NZTA and developers must work collaboratively to create enabling conditions that encourage investment around public transport nodes.
CRL has the potential to create a distinctly New Zealand model of next-generation TOD. In this context, the Fast Track Approval of Downtown Carpark Redevelopment and the Drury Metropolitan Centre and expected inclusion of TOD in the 2027 Government Policy Statement on Land Transport represent positive steps toward TOD.
CRL's ‘unfinished’ legacy
CRL, conceived many decades ago, is set to open at a time when Auckland faces cost of living pressures, including higher fuel prices and a sluggish economy — circumstances that its original planners could scarcely have imagined.
If CRL becomes simply another project on the public infrastructure balance sheet, Auckland will have missed its bigger opportunity.
But if it becomes the foundation for a sustained programme of integrated public transport and urban development, it could mark the beginning of something much more important.
This is why the debate about CRL should not be reduced to whether it was late or over budget. Those issues matter, and taxpayers deserve accountability. But the more important question is whether we learn from the experience and use the investment to build a better infrastructure and urban planning.
We need to move beyond the politics of individual transport projects towards a long-term transport infrastructure programme, consistent with the approach advocated by the Infrastructure Commission and its National Infrastructure Plan.
CRL should not be the end of New Zealand's public transport infrastructure debate.
It should be the beginning of a new one.
The real test of CRL will be whether, 20 years from now, we look back the project that finally changed how Auckland plans and integrates public transport and urban development in the form of TOD.
If that happens, the delays and cost overruns will not disappear from the history books. But CRL will have delivered something far more valuable than a metro train: a new way of building cities.
That is the integrated public transport and sustainable urban development that New Zealand should be aiming for.
This article was first published on The Post on 13 September 2026.
Dr Imran Muhammad is a professor of transport and urban planning at Massey University's School of People, Environment and Planning.
Dr Arshad Javed is a Senior Lecturer in Property at Massey University's School of Accountancy, Economics and Finance