Is it time for regime change…..in the United States?

Global security is at a watershed moment. Many worry about climate change and its implications for life on Earth in coming decades. But the greatest risk to international peace and security in our time is the current United States presidential administration of Donald Trump. The world needs to consider the implications of this before our way of life changes beyond all recognition.

There has never been an international rules-based order. There has been a US led rhetoric claiming one. The rebuilding of Western Europe after the Second World War was ostensibly based on it, and small states like New Zealand claim a right to independently exist because of it.

But the reality is the Cold War security of Europe was buttressed by the constant threat of US conventional and nuclear violence shrouded in a rhetoric of freedom, offset against the authoritarian leadership of the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). New Zealand exists because historically we have been too far away for anyone to care whether we do or not.

The current US administration is so erratic and unpredictable in its policy making that alleged ‘rogue’ states, such as Russia, North Korea and Iran, look rational and restrained by comparison. The People’s Republic of China, renowned for its long-game strategic thinking, looks far more like a global leader than the US does right now. The US currently resembles a spoilt child with too many toys in a sandpit, throwing them in whichever direction its mood dictates. The other nations scatter to avoid the fall-out. Then they carefully creep back to calm Trump by stroking his enormous ego.

Because most nations fear what Trump will do next, they have opted to placate him. The contending parties in Gaza have done the bare minimum to keep him at bay, and now NATO allies have done the same in Greenland.

The reality is Trump has critically undermined international trust between nations, he has contradicted the fundamental premise of NATO, and it’s him, not Russia, who in 2026 has emerged as the primary threat to the political independence and territorial integrity of European nations. And not just Europe. He has attacked Iran and Venezuela and now he is economically threatening Canada, having previously referred to it as the 51st US state. Canada is the US’s closest friend, neighbour, trading partner and NATO ally.

To add fuel to the fire, Trump has now deprecated British support and the sacrifice of more than 500 UK soldiers in Afghanistan – which were provided via NATO after the US was attacked by Al Qaeda in 2001. Trump values neither the agreed terms of any alliance, nor any international norm. He does not appreciate any past action any nation has done in support of the US. New Zealand lost ten soldiers in Afghanistan too – is Trump going to ridicule that also?

The US has long been touted, and touted itself, as the leader of the free world. This is largely an undeserved title. It is the most armed and dangerous of all states and is certainly showing no leadership of freedom and democracy now. Trump’s behaviour resembles Castro’s, Gaddafi’s and Saddam’s more than it does history’s noted champions of freedom.

What other democracy allows its head of state to act above the law?

Given Trump has been in power for less than two years – what irreversible global damage could he do in the remainder of his term? Donald Trump is loose, erratic, unpredictable, and dangerous with the launch codes to over 5,000 nuclear weapons at his fingertips.

If this behaviour was exhibited by any other country, or errant leader, the White House would be building a case for regime change. It would be arguing that to defend democracy, disrupt transnational crime, or maintain global peace and security the regime, or its leader, would need to be overthrown, kidnapped or their country invaded. It’s time Americans did some self-reflection. This is the case for us too. If things continue as they have been recently, New Zealand’s alignment with US security priorities in the Pacific will need a serious rethink.

Dr John Battersby is a Senior Fellow in the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa Massey University, he teaches and researches in intelligence and counter-terrorism. He is Managing Editor of National Security Journal.