Annal Dhungana

Annal Dhungana staff profile picture

School of Psychology
College of Humanities & Social Sciences


Thesis Title
Effective Communication of Model Uncertainty

Research Description
Model-based decision support is widely used in critical decision-making. There are multiple risk/hazard assessment models to help decision-making during disaster response and recovery. However, uncertainties that exist in these models, and proper uncertainty communication mechanism poses a significant challenge. There has been good research in the last two decades in understanding model analytics and model uncertainties, but we still do not have enough knowledge on what are the actual uncertainty information needs while making decisions, what are the values of decision-makers towards the whole modeling works, which has eventually hindered uncertainty communication between modeler/scientist and decision-makers. So, my research will explore the uncertainty needs of decision-makers, and devise an appropriate mechanism to communicate uncertainties.

Research Benefit
National Emergency Management Authority Regional Civil Defence Emergency Management Authority Regional Councils and Local Councils Scientists/Modeler

Personal Description
I came to New Zealand from Nepal with my family in 2018, when my wife was offered a Ph.D. opportunity. We had a four-year-old to take care of, who is turning 8 in Jan 2022. I was always into science communication- developing and designing information, communication, and educational materials in disaster risk management and climate adaptation. I found “model- uncertainty Communication” interesting which is why I choose to apply for this Ph.D. and now working on it. I have now understood that there is a lot to explore in this subject, which I will be doing rest of my life.

Dr Emma Hudson-Doyle
Associate Professor Raj Prasanna
Professor Douglas Paton
Dr Gary McDonald