Qualifications

• Masters of Engineering - University of Bristol (2007)
• Master of Research - University of Bristol (2011)
• Doctor of Philosophy - University of Auckland (2015)

Fellowships and Memberships

• Member, Higher Education Academy (Fellow) (2022)

Certifications and Registrations

• Licence, Supervisor, Massey University

Research Interests

1. Probabilistic modelling of natural hazards with a focus on volcanology and multi-hazards
2. Model uncertainty: including missing, hidden, or otherwise incomplete data, unknown physical behaviour or structure, and the influence of modelling decisions (e.g., boundary and initical conditions or assumptions)
   
   
3. Expert cognitive bias in data interpretation and elicitation theory
   
   
4. Volcanism and volcanic hazards with a focus on distributed volcanism (monogenetic fields)
   
   

Currently leading: Matatuhi: Unlocking the forecasting potential of environmental tohu via ensemble systems models
MBIE Smart Idea

Our world is changing faster and in ever more diverse ways – global records are being broken from droughts to floods, and in Aotearoa we have seen cataclysmic flooding, catastrophic volcanic eruptions, and the Canterbury earthquakes. An essential task in managing and adapting to our future is being able to forecast it. Science is trying to keep up with these changes, but current forecasting models require large amounts of information, and tend to focus only on one small part of a system (for example, the waterways, or the fault network). Environmental forecasts lack both sufficient data and knowledge to build reliable models. We, as scientists, are stuck.

We believe that the way out is by taking an all-inclusive approach, looking at the system as a whole, with parts intricately woven together. Such an approach is intrinsic to Mātauranga Maori which, moreover, provides for an alternative lens on what can be considered data, beyond instrumental readings. We know that adding more voices with alternate understandings leads to better, more transparent forecasts with accurate descriptions of uncertainty.

Our project provides robust forecasts of the future by combining adaptable statistical tools with the intrinsic Mātauranga of iwi. We start with a proof-of concept region – the Central Volcanic Plateau, and will build location-specific tools that will be realised with iwi that whakapapa to this region. Once proven, our methodologies can be directly transplanted to other localities within Aotearoa.

This research will build robust forecasts of our environmental future, and shift the conversation in Aotearoa away from “How can Mātauranga Māori be fitted into science?” and towards “What can science do to support Mātauranga Māori?”

Thematics

Resource Development and Management

Area of Expertise

Field of research codes
Earth Sciences (040000): Geology (040300):
Mathematical Sciences (010000): Statistics (010400): Stochastic Analysis and Modelling (010406):
Volcanology (040314)

Keywords

Geostatistics, Volcanology, Natural Hazards, Uncertainty modelling

Teaching Statement

(161.111)         Applied Statistics                                                            (2023 S1 Course Coordinator; 2023 S2 33%)
(233214)         GIS and Spatial Statistics                                               (2021 33%; 2022 33%, 2023 33%)
(233712)         Environmental Geographical Information Systems         (2021 25%; 2022 25%; 2023 25%)
(233314)         Remote Sensing and Earth Observation                        (2023 18%)
(228371)         Statistical Modelling for Engineers and Technologists    (2023 50%)

Graduate Supervision Statement

I view supervision as a goal-directed partnership based on genuine research interests and a common desire to expand upon or alter current thinking through the production of robust, transparent, and precise work.

I am interested in multi-disciplinary methods that will help us better understand the uncertainty of things and encourage the general unacceptance of anything claiming to be completely accurate and precise in this messy world (but hope someday to be proven otherwise).

I am based in the Volcanic Risk Solutions group and encourage all students to participate in this wider group’s activities as well as those of the Graduate Research School to facilitate the transition from student to independent researcher over the course of their Masters and/or PhD. Prospective students should feel free to contact me by email if their research interests align (or overlap) with my own, and to discuss potential avenues of research funding.

Current Doctoral Supervision

Main Supervisor of:

• Emmy Scott - Doctor of Philosophy
  Appropriate complexity of volcanic hazard models

Other Links

• Volcanic Risk Solutions
• NZ Herald - Will Scientists be able to pick NZ's Future Volcanic Eruption?
• Webinar - How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?
• Webinar recording - How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?